Brian Bollen's Blog

Studio apartment for sale in Wengen

For sale in Wengen, in the Jungfrau region of Switzerland's Bernese Oberland, a studio apartment in the middle of the ground floor of the Chalet Margaux, which sits in a tranquil part of the original village only a five-minute walk from the train station.

 

October 1987 Black Monday memory lane article

I am writing a piece about the October 1987 financial crash and am keen to talk to anyone who was working in the markets as a trader or analyst or any other function.

Do you know anyone who might be interested in taking a stroll down memory lane? My deadline is Wednesday this week to be ready for the anniversary on October 19.

If you'd like to help, email me: brianbollen@mac.com.

When Black Friday comes

Mint - Blain’s Morning Porridge – October 12th 2017

When Black Friday comes, I’ll stand by the door and catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor

For the avoidance of doubt – the Morning Porridge is unrestricted market commentary, it is not investment advice…

I’m sorry, but this morning’s Porridge isn’t fresh. It was slammed together yesterday afternoon. As you receive this I’ll be doing some showy-off stuff in the City. No freshly scribbled early morning Porridge today – just this “warmed up in the micro-wave” pap. (Incidentally, one of my favourite words is Poppity-Ping – Welsh for microwave. Don’t say you don’t learn something every day…)

2-2 in Slovenia is not a bad result

Let's put it in perspective. Amidst the calls for Gordon Strachan to be replaced as Scotland manager, it must be noted that a 2-2 draw in Slovenia is NOT a bad result. It is just that we needed a better one.

That away draw, scoring two goals against a side that has a reputation for keeping clean sheets, is not what cost Scotland the chance of qualifying for next year's World Cup finals. If anything, it was the 2-2 draw at home to England that cost us dearly. To drop two important points, at home, to the last kick of the game, that was what made the difference.

Had the players kept out England for a few seconds more (and remember this is the worst and least experienced England professional football team in history) we would this morning be sitting on at least 20 points. And if the pressure hadn't been so great last night, we might have been more relaxed and finished the qualifying with 22.

But I repeat, a 2-2 draw in Slovenia is NOT a bad result. And statistically, according to today's Daily Record, Strachan boasts a better record in the job than the late great John (Jock) Stein...

Even if we DO beat Slovenia

Further to my earlier thoughts about the likelihood that Scotland will not qualify for the World Cup finals next year, an awful realisation struck me when reading the complicated rules about qualifying group second-place finishers.

Only eight of them get a play-off place and if results do not go Scotland's way, even if we somehow contrive to beat Slovenia in Slovenia, we could still easily miss out...

The worst England football team ever

I've said it before but it needs repeating. This is the worst England football side I have ever seen. And it grows worse with every outing, it seems.

There are far too many caps being awarded to immature players who show potential but, probably because they think they are the finished article, do not 'train on'. Experience is needed, particularly in the non-existent midfield.

And how on earth are Scotland suddenly second in the group? That came out of nowhere. I confidently predict, however, based on long experience of disappointment, that having hauled themselves into contention and 'only' needing to beat Slovenia away in the final qualifying match, they will botch it.

If I were a betting man, I'd go and place a bet on them to lose, furthermore, to lose to a penalty in the very last minute, to insulate myself against the inevitable woe.

 

Money always owing

Mint - Blain’s Morning Porridge

Always the hurricane’s blowing, always the population growing, and the money owing...

For the avoidance of doubt – the Morning Porridge is unrestricted market commentary, it is not investment advice…

Not shaping up to be a good day

Mint - Blain’s Morning Porridge

Reputations changeable, Situations Tolerable.. Baby you’re adorable.

For the avoidance of doubt – the Morning Porridge is unrestricted market commentary, it is not investment advice…

(This is not shaping up to be a good day. Train massively delayed, and emails not working. Getting a bit peeved. But.. the show must go on…)

It’s the start of Q4 and October, always the most volatile month of the year – and it’s started with shock and surprise. Just a few years ago it would have been inconceivable that Spain’s vibrant democracy might stumble towards the verge of dismemberment. But this morning…Spain bonds are under pressure. Anyone who thinks populism is dead is profoundly wrong. If it can happen in Spain…it can happen elsewhere. Big and small political surprises define markets..

What did happen yesterday? It’s about how the story is told.

What on earth is a helminth?

Title: Finance, Society and Sustainability: How to make the financial system work for the economy, people and planet

Author: Nick Silver

Pages: 304 (including notes and index)

Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

ISBN: 978-1-137-56060-5

I wasn't quite sure what to expect of this book when I asked for a review copy. Could it possibly live up to the extravagant claims embedded in the title, I wondered.  I was immediately reassured by several things. One, the publisher sent it to me via courier. Two, it was shrink-wrapped, a level of reverence for a book that I can't recall encountering with previous press copies.

Three, it looks like a proper book, not one of these vastly underwritten and oversold pieces of self-published tosh that are increasingly infesting the world as everyone who possesses a copy of Word thinks they can write. Well, I have long possessed sets of spanners but that doesn't make me a plumber or a mechanic.

Another element that caused me to smile was the list of contents. I couldn't fail to warm to a book where the chapter titles include The Archaeology of Finance, The Potemkin Market, The Sisyphus Savings System, La Grande Illusion, The Economy's Helminths (I'll have to go and consult one of my several dictionaries as I have no idea who or what a Helminth is!) and, finally, Twilight of the Gods of Finance. For an actuary and an economist, Nick Silver seems to possess an unusually creative soul.

And talk about local colour...the opening sentence about a small group of Spanish explorers in 1750 cutting their way through the jungles of Central America and discovering the ruins of monumental structures such as the Pyramid of the Magician grabs the attention immediately. I consider myself reasonably well educated, good with words and capable of creating a new metaphor, but I don't think that I would have made the connection that Nick Silver then does with said structures and Canary Wharf station.

This book is worth reading if only for its closing paragraphs.

“Finally, what should finance professionals do? I must admit that I do feel a twinge of guilt as I have denigrated the work of my fellow finance professionals, many of whom are hard-working decent people, and many of whom are my friends. It is hardly a consolation that they are not even bloodsucking vampire squids, but like worms that live in your gut and are just agents of a system governed by wrong incentives which control their lives. Oh, and they will soon be redundant.

“But finance is a powerful technology and you, the finance professionals, are the keepers of its lore. Finance can be used as a positive force to improve people's lives and to help solve the environmental crisis that we face. It is up to you smart, talented and conscientious people, who hold the detailed knowledge of the system, to change the system from within so that it can become a force to enhance the beautiful things in life; nature, social relations and human flourishing, rather than engaging in a futile and misguided attempt to reduce all that is good to a financial value.”

In short, he might have said, there is more to life than money. But I myself voiced such an opinion not too long ago in the company of some people who apparently had a pound or two to spare. And I was ordered to stop talking as I was being offensive...

If I haven't already made it clear, this is another of the growing breed of books devoted to matters financial that is actually worth reading. I would urge my readers to add it to their reading list soon.

ps My Collins Concise English Dictionary informs me that a helminth is a parasitic worm; you learn something new every day.

Another wood-fired pizza vendor in Towcester

Have just discovered another wood-fired pizza street vendor in Towcester: Eric's Pizza sits on the bridge opposite The Forum in central Towcester from 2-9pm on Saturday and Sunday. They are very good and great value at £5 for a Margharita.

Added to The Little Oven of Joy at The Mill on a Tuesday, and the Wood-Fired Pizza Oven on a Wednesday, this makes an excellent pizza available in town four nights a week! Brilliant!!

Gotham's great fun

Having great fun watching Gotham via Netflix. I was a bit dubious at first but it's building momentum nicely towards the end of the first season. Much darker at times that I thought it would be but Batman has long had a tendency to be the darker part of the DC Comics universe. Sean Pertwee as Alfred Pennyworth is particularly good, I think.

What on earth is grand about Grand Designs these days?

What on earth is grand about Grand Designs these days? I have to ask, because last night's episode hit just about every Grand Design cliché you can think of.

My wife and I joked about it before we settled down to watch. Big box. Timber clad. Corrugated tin roof. Over budget. Run out of money. Wife falls pregnant during build.

Ping. Ping. Ping. Ping. Ping. Ping. Like playing Grand Designs bingo.

And at the end of it, we have yet another big quirky box clad in timber with a corrugated tin roof and nowhere to sit comfortably and watch the telly. In bending over backwards to avoid being accused of tired architectural cliché (such as building a house that looks nice and people might want to live in) the programme has done little other than create a whole new set of clichés, banalities and platitudes.

I think in all the years I've been watching the programme, I have seen maybe ONE dwelling place that satisfies Vetruvian architectural principles. My key question at the end of every episode has become: where do you watch the telly? My very own version of a Vetruvian principle...

 

I've asked this before and am asking it again

Man City 5-0 Liverpool. In what way has Jurgen Klopp improved Liverpool? Answers on a grain of rice please...

Sampled Netflix for the first time last night

Wow is all I can say. Watched London Has Fallen (after a couple of tech problems) and the first two episodes of Gotham which I have already seen through a different medium but didn't remember much about them.

With AmazonPrime and an Amazon FireStick, and Netflix, I think it's safe to say goodbye to watching repeat episodes of FlogIt and Location^3.

David Kynaston's excellent history of the Bank of England

Title: Till Time's Last Sand

Author: David Kynaston

Pages: 879 (including notes and index)

Publisher: Bloomsbury

Price: £35.00/$75.00

ISBN HB: 978-1-4088-6856-0

ISBN TPB: 978-1-4088-6857-7

ISBN ePub: 978-1-4088-6858-4

This is quite simply a perfect addition to the collection of anyone who has an interest in the financial past. Sub-titled A HISTORY OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND 1694-2013 it does exactly what it says on the tin.

The blurb on the inside front cover sleeve describes the book as the first authoritative and accessible single volume history of the Bank of England and I look forward hugely to reading it fully at leisure and to consulting it in years to come.

Till Time's Last Sand opens with the Bank's founding in 1694 (by a Scotsman named William Paterson, which I knew, and with a £300 capital subscription from philosopher John Locke, which I didn't know). It closes in 2013 with Mark Carney succeeding Mervyn King as governor.

Another thing I didn't know was that William Paterson was gone from the bank before the end of February 1695 for conduct unbecoming and breach of trust.

I passed my banking exams in the spring of 1983 and became an Associate of the Institute of Bankers in July that year, and was elected to fellowship of the ifs School of Finance in March 2007 so have almost a full lifetime's exposure to banking history, which enthused me from day one of my history of banking studies.

What fun to wander down memory lane with tally sticks (sticks of notched wood that were in effect IOUs, the blockchain of their day) and Navy paper (bills based on the security of the English Navy, and it WAS the English navy as the Act of Union that created the UK did not pass through parliament till 1707).

Page 13 has a rivetting account of how the then deputy governor Michael Godfrey died suddenly when watching the siege of Namur in 1695 along with William Paterson. 'A cannon ball from the ramparts laid Godfrey's head at William's feet. Bank stock immediately fell 2 percent, once the news reached London; and Scawen, who apparently had been standing only two yards away, was elected as the new deputy governor'. They just do not make them like that any more.

Page 477 features - nay, stars - a list of opinions attributed to central bankers, drawn up in 1962. A central needs a sense of smell (analysis is only theorising but may be encouraged when it confuses critics). No civil servant understands markets. Politicians do not sufficiently explain the facts of life to the electorate. Central bankers should always do what they say and never say what they do. Taxes are too high. Sounds pretty much bang on as a summary of the world 55 years later.

The final sentences of Till Time's Last Sand are straight from the mouth, or pen, of Mervyn King, musing on the heroes and villains highlighted on the website of his favourite football team, Aston Villa. 'For all our sakes it is important that central banks are seen neither as heroes nor villains. They should be modest technicians, striving to improve the way they use the tools of their trade, and always eager to learn. Openness of mind and fleetness of foot will be the best way to avoid extinction.'

A fitting end to a marvellous book. I take my hat off to David Kynaston, author of an earlier history of another institution, the Financial Times, published in its centenary year in 1988. It still sits proudly on my bookshelf nearly 30 years after it was presented to me as an FT staffer at that time.

Lucifer tv series

If you haven't already sampled the tv series Lucifer, I can recommend at least trying it. The premise is crazy - the devil is on holiday from Hell, in Los Angeles - but it's great fun.

I don't believe it...

I cannot believe that José Mourinho (aka Joe Brown), the current manager of Manchester United, is complaining about how other clubs are distorting the transfer market.

Which club paid huge fees for, inter alia: Rio Ferdinand, Juan Sebastien Veron, Wayne Rooney, Michael Carrick and Paul Pogba?

The words pot, kettle and black spring unbidden to mind...

First they came for the MCC

First they came for the MCC. Then they came for the Honourable Company of Muirfield Golfers. Now they're coming for the TARDIS.

Heaven help us...on the positive side, that will free up 45 minutes 12 or 13 times a year...

Raging Bull: what was all the fuss about?

I finally got round to finishing watching Raging Bull last night. What on earth was all the fuss about? It easily ranks as one of the worst films I have ever seen.

Investment risk manager sought...

...for a 'day in the life of' feature. If interested, email me: brianbollen@mac.com. Deadline June 30.

The worst fish and chips ever

This afternoon I experienced the worst fish and chips I have ever known, courtesy of the Marlin chippy on Watling Street West in Towcester.

The batter was like a brick. And once I had hacked my in I found there was hardly any fish inside. Completely tasteless. Ditto the chips. My wife and ate just enough to satisfy hunger, and agreed to give what was left to the ducks on the River Tove opposite.

Poor ducks.